Steve Jobs and company will more than double iPhone sales by 2011, analyst says.
BURLINGAME, CALIF. -- There are two kinds of investment analysts: the kind no one listens to--who say crazy things just to get noticed--and the kind who say smart things that everybody ought to hear.
Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi is definitely in the latter category. So when Sacconaghi wrote something pretty startling Monday: that Apple ( AAPL - news - people ) could sell 50 million iPhones in 2011--up from precisely squat in 2006--it means that Steve Jobs and company are going to sell 50 million iPhones sometime real soon.
Here's how:
--The smart phone market is growing fast, and Apple can keep up.
The market has grown 35% a year over the past three years, making projections it will grow 27% in both 2010 and 2011 seem reasonable. "If Apple simply grows with the market, it would ship an incremental 10.3 million units in FY 2011 vs. FY 2009 levels," Sacconaghi wrote.
--Apple will add new carriers.
In the United States and many other countries, the iPhone is only available from one carrier. In the U.S., that carrier is AT&T (T - news - people ), but Sacconaghi figures a deal with Verizon ( VZ - news -people ) could add another 11 million iPhone sales in 2011. Broadening distribution in Europe and Asia could add another 3.5 million and 4 million units, respectively.
--China.
China is the elephant in the room. Apple has not yet struck a deal with a carrier in China, but when it does, it will unlock 3 million iPhones by 2011, Sacconaghi figures. "We continue to believe that Apple is likely to announce availability of the iPhone in China by the end of this calendar year, and most likely with China Unicom," Sacconaghi writes.
Now for the caveat, and it's a big one: All of this assumes that Apple doesn't steal market share from other handset makers. "Our analysis does not include the fact that iPhone is likely to be a share gainer among existing carriers going forward, largely because of the increasing returns nature of its software ecosystem," Sacconaghi writes. Translation: Apple could sell a whole lot more than 50 million phones.
(via Forbes.com)
BURLINGAME, CALIF. -- There are two kinds of investment analysts: the kind no one listens to--who say crazy things just to get noticed--and the kind who say smart things that everybody ought to hear.
Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi is definitely in the latter category. So when Sacconaghi wrote something pretty startling Monday: that Apple ( AAPL - news - people ) could sell 50 million iPhones in 2011--up from precisely squat in 2006--it means that Steve Jobs and company are going to sell 50 million iPhones sometime real soon.
Here's how:
--The smart phone market is growing fast, and Apple can keep up.
The market has grown 35% a year over the past three years, making projections it will grow 27% in both 2010 and 2011 seem reasonable. "If Apple simply grows with the market, it would ship an incremental 10.3 million units in FY 2011 vs. FY 2009 levels," Sacconaghi wrote.
--Apple will add new carriers.
In the United States and many other countries, the iPhone is only available from one carrier. In the U.S., that carrier is AT&T (T - news - people ), but Sacconaghi figures a deal with Verizon ( VZ - news -people ) could add another 11 million iPhone sales in 2011. Broadening distribution in Europe and Asia could add another 3.5 million and 4 million units, respectively.
--China.
China is the elephant in the room. Apple has not yet struck a deal with a carrier in China, but when it does, it will unlock 3 million iPhones by 2011, Sacconaghi figures. "We continue to believe that Apple is likely to announce availability of the iPhone in China by the end of this calendar year, and most likely with China Unicom," Sacconaghi writes.
Now for the caveat, and it's a big one: All of this assumes that Apple doesn't steal market share from other handset makers. "Our analysis does not include the fact that iPhone is likely to be a share gainer among existing carriers going forward, largely because of the increasing returns nature of its software ecosystem," Sacconaghi writes. Translation: Apple could sell a whole lot more than 50 million phones.
(via Forbes.com)
