How Apple Will Sell 50 Million iPhones

Steve Jobs and company will more than double iPhone sales by 2011, analyst says.

BURLINGAME, CALIF. -- There are two kinds of investment analysts: the kind no one listens to--who say crazy things just to get noticed--and the kind who say smart things that everybody ought to hear.

Bernstein Research's Toni Sacconaghi is definitely in the latter category. So when Sacconaghi wrote something pretty startling Monday: that Apple ( AAPL - news - people ) could sell 50 million iPhones in 2011--up from precisely squat in 2006--it means that Steve Jobs and company are going to sell 50 million iPhones sometime real soon.

Here's how:

--The smart phone market is growing fast, and Apple can keep up.

The market has grown 35% a year over the past three years, making projections it will grow 27% in both 2010 and 2011 seem reasonable. "If Apple simply grows with the market, it would ship an incremental 10.3 million units in FY 2011 vs. FY 2009 levels," Sacconaghi wrote.

--Apple will add new carriers.

In the United States and many other countries, the iPhone is only available from one carrier. In the U.S., that carrier is AT&T (T - news - people ), but Sacconaghi figures a deal with Verizon ( VZ - news -people ) could add another 11 million iPhone sales in 2011. Broadening distribution in Europe and Asia could add another 3.5 million and 4 million units, respectively.

--China.

China is the elephant in the room. Apple has not yet struck a deal with a carrier in China, but when it does, it will unlock 3 million iPhones by 2011, Sacconaghi figures. "We continue to believe that Apple is likely to announce availability of the iPhone in China by the end of this calendar year, and most likely with China Unicom," Sacconaghi writes.

Now for the caveat, and it's a big one: All of this assumes that Apple doesn't steal market share from other handset makers. "Our analysis does not include the fact that iPhone is likely to be a share gainer among existing carriers going forward, largely because of the increasing returns nature of its software ecosystem," Sacconaghi writes. Translation: Apple could sell a whole lot more than 50 million phones.

(via Forbes.com)

Sony unveils slimmer PS3: $300, lands in September

Hardly a surprise, but Sony got on stage today at GamesCom and confirmed what we've all known deep down in our hearts: the new, slimmer PS3 is really real. It'll be out in the first week of September (September 1 in North America and Europe, September 3 for Japan), and will retail for $300 (or 300 Euro, or 29,980 Yen). It's smaller and lighter, has a 120GB HDD, and packs "all the same features" of the regular PS3 while consuming 34 percent less power and taking up 32 percent less space. Existing PS3 SKUs have their prices dropped a hundie apiece tomorrow in anticipation, so be sure to grab a space heater while you've still got a shot -- though we're not sure why you'd pay $300 for an 80GB PS3 when you can wait a couple weeks and get 120GB in a cuter package. A couple pics of the unveil are after the break.

The new 3.0 firmware will be released concurrently with the PS3 slim, which should provide a breath of fresh air for existing machines. Other new features of the PS3 slim include BRAVIA Sync, which allows you to control the PS3 XMB over HDMI through your BRAVIA TV remote, and System Standby to shut off the PS3 when the BRAVIA TV is off. Sony also claims this new machine will run more quietly than existing PS3 systems, which is good news for people who like to watch movies or have conversations in the general vicinity of their game console. There's also a Vertical Stand, which will retail for $24. Not so awesome is Sony's removalof the Install Other OS feature... farewell, Linux. We hardly knew thee.

Spec sheet:
Product name: PlayStation 3
Product code: CECH-2000A (Charcoal Black)
CPU: Cell Broadband Engine™
GPU: RSX
Audio output: LPCM 7.1ch, Dolby Digital, Dolby Digital Plus, Dolby TrueHD, DTS, DTS-HD, AAC.
Memory: 256MB XDR Main RAM, 256MB GDDR3 VRAM
Hard disk: 120GB 2.5" Serial ATA
USB 2.0 ports: 2
Networking: Ethernet (10BASE-T, 100BASE-TX, 1000BASE-T), IEEE 802.11 b/g, Bluetooth 2.0 (+EDR)
Controller: Wireless Controller (Bluetooth) x 1
AV outputs: HDMI x 1, AV MULTI OUT x 1, Digital out (optical) x 1
Resolutions: 1080p, 1080i, 720p, 480p, 480i (for PAL 576p, 576i) BD / DVD / CD drive (read only): BD × 2 (BD-ROM), DVD × 8 (DVD-ROM), CD × 24 (CD-ROM)
Power: AC 220 – 240, 50/60Hz
Power consumption: Approx. 250W
External dimensions (excluding maximum projecting part): Approx. 290 × 65 × 290 mm (width × height × length)
Mass: Approx. 3.2kg
Included in box: PlayStation 3 system × 1, Wireless Controller (DUALSHOCK 3) × 1, AC power cord × 1, AV cable × 1, USB cable × 1

Sony finally hacks $100 from 'old' PlayStation 3 price, starting today

After begging, pleading and imploring Sony for months on end to lower the barrier to entry on its PlayStation 3 console, the company has at long last relented. Starting today (supposedly, anyway), all existing PS3 consoles will retail for $100 less than they did yesterday, though it looks as if most e-tailers have yet to ratchet their tags down to reflect the change. Of course, you could wait just a few more days and snag a PS3 Slim for the low, low price of $299, but the question is -- will you?

PS3 price cuts appear in print, must be real

As the story goes, a Kotaku reader just received these PS3 posters into the FYE shop where he works. You'll notice that the "new low price" is augmented with a "while supplies last" disclaimer indicating what could be a close-out on the 80GB (soon $300, reduced from $400) and 160GB ($400, reduced from $500) PlayStation 3 models. More evidence, perhaps, that a PS3 Slim announcement is imminent -- even as soon as today's Sony presser at the Cologne Gamescon Expo that kicks off at 12 noon ET or 1800 for those of you on Central Europe time.

Think Apple's Secretive? Wait Until You Learn About Netflix

In the tech world, we usually see Apple as the most secretive company around. But it turns out Netflix might be just as paranoid, and just as fascinating. This expose will make you see DVD-rental-by-mail in a totally new light.

I love Netflix, and I understand why they need to keep their secrets locked up tight: They're one of the few true innovators in the tech world and they've had to contend with some nasty copycatting. But they go a little over-the-top with their secrecy: Every warehouse is totally anonymous, hidden, and unbranded; the Tribune reporter who filed this story isn't allowed to divulge even the slightest hint as to where the warehouse he visited is.

Some more interesting tidbits: It doesn't matter when you mail out your DVDs, since they're filed all at once, in the wee hours of the morning (think 3:00 AM to 7:00 AM). Netflix employees (officially called "associates") have forced calisthenics every 65 minutes. And coolest of all, they have a machine that scans 30,000 DVD envelope bar codes per hour, sending out an email to Netflix subscribers immediately saying Netflix has received their DVD back. It's a really fascinating read, go check it out. [Chicago Tribune]